Methodological issues of retrospective surveys for measuring mortality of highly clustered diseases: case study of the 2014-16 Ebola outbreak in Bo District, Sierra Leone.

BACKGROUND: There is a lack of empirical data on design effects (DEFF) for mortality rate for highly clustered data such as with Ebola virus disease (EVD), along with a lack of documentation of methodological limitations and operational utility of mortality estimated from cluster-sampled studies when the DEFF is high. OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this paper are to report EVD mortality rate and DEFF estimates, and discuss the methodological limitations of cluster surveys when data are highly clustered such as during an EVD outbreak. METHODS: We analysed the outputs of two independent population-based surveys conducted at the end of the 2014-2016 EVD outbreak in Bo District, Sierra Leone, in urban and rural areas. In each area, 35 clusters of 14 households were selected with probability proportional to population size. We collected information on morbidity, mortality and changes in household composition during the recall period (May 2014 to April 2015). Rates were calculated for all-cause, all-age, under-5 and EVD-specific mortality, respectively, by areas and overall. Crude and adjusted mortality rates were estimated using Poisson regression, accounting for the surveys sample weights and the clustered design. RESULTS: Overall 980 households and 6,522 individuals participated in both surveys. A total of 64 deaths were reported, of which 20 were attributed to EVD. The crude and EVD-specific mortality rates were 0.35/10,000 person-days (95%CI: 0.23-0.52) and 0.12/10,000 person-days (95%CI: 0.05-0.32), respectively. The DEFF for EVD mortality was 5.53, and for non-EVD mortality, it was 1.53. DEFF for EVD-specific mortality was 6.18 in the rural area and 0.58 in the urban area. DEFF for non-EVD-specific mortality was 1.87 in the rural area and 0.44 in the urban area. CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrate a high degree of clustering; this contributed to imprecise mortality estimates, which have limited utility when assessing the impact of disease. We provide DEFF estimates that can inform future cluster surveys and discuss design improvements to mitigate the limitations of surveys for highly clustered data.

Main findings: For humanitarian organizations it is imperative to document the methodological limitations of cluster surveys and discuss the utility.Added knowledge: This paper adds new knowledge on cluster surveys for highly clustered data such us in Ebola virus disease.Global health impact of policy and action: We provided empirical estimates and discuss design improvements to inform future study.

An oral antiviral for Ebola disease.

For those exposed to filovirus, such as Sudan virus and Ebola virus, a new study offers hope.

Perspectives on Advancing Countermeasures for Filovirus Disease: Report From a Multisector Meeting.

Although there are now approved treatments and vaccines for Ebola virus disease, the case fatality rate remains unacceptably high even when patients are treated with the newly approved therapeutics. Furthermore, these countermeasures are not expected to be effective against disease caused by other filoviruses. A meeting of subject-matter experts was held during the 10th International Filovirus Symposium to discuss strategies to address these gaps. Several investigational therapeutics, vaccine candidates, and combination strategies were presented. The greatest challenge was identified to be the implementation of well-designed clinical trials of safety and efficacy during filovirus disease outbreaks. Preparing for this will require agreed-upon common protocols for trials intended to bridge multiple outbreaks across all at-risk countries. A multinational research consortium including at-risk countries would be an ideal mechanism to negotiate agreement on protocol design and coordinate preparation. Discussion participants recommended a follow-up meeting be held in Africa to establish such a consortium.

Limited Benefit of Postexposure Prophylaxis With VSV-EBOV in Ebola Virus-Infected Rhesus Macaques.

Vesicular stomatitis virus-Ebola virus (VSV-EBOV) vaccine has been successfully used in ring vaccination approaches during EBOV disease outbreaks demonstrating its general benefit in short-term prophylactic vaccination, but actual proof of its benefit in true postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) for humans is missing. Animal studies have indicated PEP efficacy when VSV-EBOV was used within hours of lethal EBOV challenge. Here, we used a lower EBOV challenge dose and a combined intravenous and intramuscular VSV-EBOV administration to improve PEP efficacy in the rhesus macaque model. VSV-EBOV treatment 1 hour after EBOV challenge resulted in delayed disease progression but little benefit in outcome. Thus, we could not confirm previous results indicating questionable benefit of VSV-EBOV for EBOV PEP in a nonhuman primate model.

Evaluation of viral load in patients with Ebola virus disease in Liberia: a retrospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Viral load in patients with Ebola virus disease affects case fatality rate and is an important parameter used for diagnostic cutoffs, stratification in randomised controlled trials, and epidemiological studies. However, viral load in Ebola virus disease is currently estimated using numerous different assays and protocols that were not developed or validated for this purpose. Here, our aim was to conduct a laboratory-based re-evaluation of the viral loads of a large cohort of Liberian patients with Ebola virus disease and analyse these data in the broader context of the west Africa epidemic. METHODS: In this retrospective observational study, whole blood samples from patients at the Eternal Love Winning Africa Ebola treatment unit (Monrovia, Liberia) were re-extracted with an optimised protocol and analysed by droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) using a novel semi-strand specific assay to measure viral load. To allow for more direct comparisons, the ddPCR viral loads were also back-calculated to cycle threshold (Ct) values. The new viral load data were then compared with the Ct values from the original diagnostic quantitative RT-PCR (qRT-PCR) testing to identify differing trends and discrepancies. FINDINGS: Between Aug 28 and Dec 18, 2014, 727 whole blood samples from 528 individuals were collected. 463 (64%) were first-draw samples and 409 (56%) were from patients positive for Ebola virus (EBOV), species Zaire ebolavirus. Of the 307 first-draw EBOV-positive samples, 127 (41%) were from survivors and 180 (59%) were from non-survivors; 155 (50%) were women, 145 (47%) were men, and seven (2%) were not recorded, and the mean age was 29·3 (SD 15·0) years for women and 31·8 (SD 14·8) years for men. Survivors had significantly lower mean viral loads at presentation than non-survivors in both the reanalysed dataset (5·61 [95% CI 5·34-5·87] vs 7·19 [6·99-7·38] log10 EBOV RNA copies per mL; p<0·0001) and diagnostic dataset (Ct value 28·72 [27·97-29·47] vs 26·26 [25·72-26·81]; p<0·0001). However, the prognostic capacity of viral load increased with the reanalysed dataset (odds ratio [OR] of death 8·06 [95% CI 4·81-13·53], p<0·0001 for viral loads above 6·71 log10 EBOV RNA copies per mL vs OR of death 2·02 [1·27-3·20], p=0·0028 for Ct values below 27·37). Diagnostic qRT-PCR significantly (p<0·0001) underestimated viral load in both survivors and non-survivors (difference in diagnostic Ct value minus laboratory Ct value of 1·79 [95% CI 1·16-2·43] for survivors and 5·15 [4·43-5·87] for non-survivors). Six samples that were reported negative by diagnostic testing were found to be positive upon reanalysis and had high viral loads. INTERPRETATION: Inaccurate viral load estimation from diagnostic Ct values is probably multifactorial; however, unaddressed PCR inhibition from tissue damage in patients with fulminant Ebola virus disease could largely account for the discrepancies observed in our study. Testing protocols for Ebola virus disease require further standardisation and validation to produce accurate viral load estimates, minimise false negatives, and allow for reliable epidemiological investigation. FUNDING: Intramural Research Program of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health.

Use of Ebola Vaccine: Expansion of Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices To Include Two Additional Populations - United States, 2021.

On December 19, 2019, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP Ebola vaccine (ERVEBO, Merck) for the prevention of Ebola virus disease (EVD) caused by infection with Ebola virus, species Zaire ebolavirus, in adults aged ≥18 years. In February 2020, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended preexposure vaccination with ERVEBO for adults aged ≥18 years in the United States who are at highest risk for potential occupational exposure to Ebola virus because they are responding to an outbreak of EVD, work as health care personnel at federally designated Ebola treatment centers in the United States, or work as laboratorians or other staff members at biosafety level 4 facilities in the United States (1).

Longitudinal antibody and T cell responses in Ebola virus disease survivors and contacts: an observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The 2013-16 Ebola virus disease epidemic in west Africa caused international alarm due to its rapid and extensive spread resulting in a significant death toll and social unrest within the affected region. The large number of cases provided an opportunity to study the long-term kinetics of Zaire ebolavirus-specific immune response of survivors in addition to known contacts of those infected with the virus. METHODS: In this observational cohort study, we worked with leaders of Ebola virus disease survivor associations in two regions of Guinea, Guéckédou and Coyah, to recruit survivors of Ebola virus disease, contacts from households of individuals known to have had Ebola virus disease, and individuals who were not knowingly associated with infected individuals or had not had Ebola virus disease symptoms to serve as negative controls. We did Zaire ebolavirus glycoprotein-specific T cell analysis on peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) on location in Guinea and transported plasma and PBMCs back to Europe for antibody quantification by ELISA, functional neutralising antibody analysis using live Zaire ebolavirus, and T cell phenotype studies. We report on the longitudinal cellular and humoral response among Ebola virus disease survivors and highlight potentially paucisymptomatic infection. FINDINGS: We recruited 117 survivors of Ebola virus disease, 66 contacts, and 23 negative controls. The mean neutralising antibody titre among the Ebola virus disease survivors 3-14 months after infection was 1/174 (95% CI 1/136-1/223). Individual results varied greatly from 1/10 to more than 1/1000 but were on average ten times greater than that induced after 1 month by single dose Ebola virus vaccines. Following reactivation with glycoprotein peptide, the mean T cell responses among 116 Ebola virus disease survivors as measured by ELISpot was 305 spot-forming units (95% CI 257-353). The dominant CD8+ polyfunctional T cell phenotype, as measured among 53 Ebola virus disease survivors, was interferon γ+, tumour necrosis factor+, interleukin-2-, and the mean response was 0·046% of total CD8+ T cells (95% CI 0·021-0·071). Additionally, both neutralising antibody and T cell responses were detected in six (9%) of 66 Ebola virus disease contacts. We also noted that four (3%) of 117 individuals with Ebola virus disease infections did not have circulating Ebola virus-specific antibodies 3 months after infection. INTERPRETATION: The continuous high titre of neutralising antibodies and increased T cell response might support the concept of long-term protective immunity in survivors. The existence of antibody and T cell responses in contacts of individuals with Ebola virus disease adds further evidence to the existence of sub-clinical Ebola virus infection. FUNDING: US Food & Drug Administration, Horizon 2020 EU EVIDENT, Wellcome, UK Department for International Development. TRANSLATION: For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Prior vaccination with rVSV-ZEBOV does not interfere with but improves efficacy of postexposure antibody treatment.

A replication-competent vesicular stomatitis virus vaccine expressing the Ebola virus (EBOV) glycoprotein (GP) (rVSV-ZEBOV) was successfully used during the 2013-16 EBOV epidemic. Additionally, chimeric and human monoclonal antibodies (mAb) against the EBOV GP have shown promise in animals and humans when administered therapeutically. Uncertainty exists regarding the efficacy of postexposure antibody treatments in the event of a known exposure of a recent rVSV-ZEBOV vaccinee. Here, we model a worst-case scenario using rhesus monkeys vaccinated or unvaccinated with the rVSV-ZEBOV vaccine. We demonstrate that animals challenged with a uniformly lethal dose of EBOV one day following vaccination, and then treated with the anti-EBOV GP mAb MIL77 starting 3 days postexposure show no evidence of clinical illness and survive challenge. In contrast, animals receiving only vaccination or only mAb-based therapy become ill, with decreased survival compared to animals vaccinated and subsequently treated with MIL77. These results suggest that rVSV-ZEBOV augments immunotherapy.

Clinical and epidemiological performance of WHO Ebola case definitions: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Ebola virus disease case definition is a crucial surveillance tool to detect suspected cases for referral and as a screening tool for clinicians to support admission and laboratory testing decisions at Ebola health facilities. We aimed to assess the performance of the WHO Ebola virus disease case definitions and other screening scores. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Scopus, Embase, and Web of Science for studies published in English between June 13, 1978, and Jan 14, 2020. We included studies that estimated the sensitivity and specificity of WHO Ebola virus disease case definitions, clinical and epidemiological characteristics (symptoms at admission and contact history), and predictive risk scores against the reference standard (laboratory-confirmed Ebola virus disease). Summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity were calculated using bivariate and hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (when four or more studies provided data) or random-effects meta-analysis (fewer than four studies provided data). FINDINGS: We identified 2493 publications, of which 14 studies from four countries (Sierra Leone, Guinea, Liberia, and Angola) were included in the analysis. 12 021 people with suspected disease were included, of whom 4874 were confirmed as positive for Ebola virus infection. Six studies explored the performance of WHO case definitions in non-paediatric populations, and in all of these studies, suspected and probable cases were combined and could not be disaggregated for analysis. The pooled sensitivity of the WHO Ebola virus disease case definitions from these studies was 81·5% (95% CI 74·1-87·2) and pooled specificity was 35·7% (28·5-43·6). History of contact or epidemiological link was a key predictor for the WHO case definitions (seven studies) and for risk scores (six studies). The most sensitive symptom was intense fatigue (79·0% [95% CI 74·4-83·0]), assessed in seven studies, and the least sensitive symptom was pain behind the eyes (1·0% [0·0-7·0]), assessed in three studies. The performance of fever as a symptom varied depending on the cutoff used to define fever. INTERPRETATION: WHO Ebola virus disease case definitions perform suboptimally to identify cases at both community level and during triage at Ebola health facilities. Inclusion of intense fatigue as a key symptom and contact history could improve the performance of case definitions, but implementation of these changes will require effective collaboration with, and trust of, affected communities. FUNDING: Médecins sans Frontières.

Prioritising pathogens for the management of severe febrile patients to improve clinical care in low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Severe febrile illness without a known source (SFWS) is a challenge for clinicians when deciding how to manage a patient, particularly given the wide spectrum of potential aetiologies that contribute to fever. These infections are difficult to distinguish clinically, and accurate diagnosis requires a plethora of diagnostics including blood cultures, imaging techniques, molecular or serological tests, and more. When laboratory services are available, a limited test menu hinders clinical decision-making and antimicrobial stewardship, leading to empiric treatment and suboptimal patient outcomes. To specifically address SFWS, this work aimed to identify priority pathogens for a globally applicable panel for fever causing pathogens. METHOD: A pragmatic two-pronged approach combining currently available scientific data in an analytical hierarchy process and systematically gathered expert input, was designed to address the lack of comprehensive global aetiology data. The expert re-ranked list was then further adapted for a specific use case to focus on community acquired infections in whole blood specimens. The resulting list was further analysed to address different geographical regions (Asia, Africa, and Latin America), and Cohen kappa scores of agreement were calculated. RESULTS: The expert ranked prioritized pathogen list generated as part of this two-pronged approach included typhoidal Salmonella, Plasmodium species and Mycobacterium tuberculosis as the top 3 pathogens. This pathogen list was then further adapted for the SFWS use case to develop a final pathogen list to inform product development. Subsequent analysis comparing the relevance of the SFWS pathogen list to multiple populations and geographical regions showed that the SFWS prioritized list had considerable utility across Africa and Asia, but less so for Latin America. In addition, the list showed high levels of agreement across different patient sub-populations, but lower relevance for neonates and symptomatic HIV patients. CONCLUSION: This work highlighted once again the challenges of prioritising in global health, but it also shows that taking a two-pronged approach, combining available prevalence data with expert input, can result in a broadly applicable priority list. This comprehensive utility is particularly important in the context of product development, where a sufficient market size is essential to achieve a sustainable commercialized diagnostic product to address SFWS.

Deep Sequencing of RNA from Blood and Oral Swab Samples Reveals the Presence of Nucleic Acid from a Number of Pathogens in Patients with Acute Ebola Virus Disease and Is Consistent with Bacterial Translocation across the Gut.

In this study, samples from the 2013-2016 West African Ebola virus outbreak from patients in Guinea with Ebola virus disease (EVD) were analyzed to discover and classify what other pathogens were present. Throat swabs were taken from deceased EVD patients, and peripheral blood samples were analyzed that had been taken from patients when they presented at the treatment center with acute illness. High-throughput RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) and bioinformatics were used to identify the potential microorganisms. This approach confirmed Ebola virus (EBOV) in all samples from patients diagnosed as acute positive for the virus by quantitative reverse transcription-PCR in deployed field laboratories. Nucleic acid mapping to Plasmodium was also used on the patient samples, confirming results obtained with an antigen-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT) conducted in the field laboratories. The data suggested that a high Plasmodium load, as determined by sequence read depth, was associated with mortality and influenced the host response, whereas a lower parasite load did not appear to affect outcome. The identifications of selected bacteria from throat swabs via RNA-seq were confirmed by culture. The data indicated that the potential pathogens identified in the blood samples were associated with translocation from the gut, suggesting the presence of bacteremia, which transcriptome data suggested may induce or aggravate the acute-phase response observed during EVD. Transcripts mapping to different viruses were also identified, including those indicative of lytic infections. The development of high-resolution analysis of samples from patients with EVD will help inform care pathways and the most appropriate general antimicrobial therapy to be used in a resource-poor setting. IMPORTANCE Our results highlight the identification of an array of pathogens in the blood of patients with Ebola virus disease (EVD). This has not been done before, and the data have important implications for the treatment of patients with EVD, particularly considering antibiotic stewardship. We show that EVD patients who were also infected with Plasmodium, particularly at higher loads, had more adverse outcomes than patients with lower levels of Plasmodium. However, the presence of Plasmodium did not influence the innate immune response, and it is likely that the presence of EBOV dominated this response. Several viruses other than EBOV were identified, and bacteria associated with sepsis were also identified. These findings were indicative of bacterial translocation across the gut during the acute phase of EVD.

Clinical Management of Ebola Virus Disease Patients in Low-Resource Settings.

The low-resource environment deprives healthcare providers caring for patients with Ebola virus disease (EVD) of many of the means employed for the critically ill that are available in better resourced settings, such as advanced therapeutic interventions and abundant staff. In addition to these limitations may be added those imposed by the remote tropical locations, where EVD outbreaks occur. In this setting, a safe environment is created where healthcare workers may care for their patients over the evolving course of their acute illness into their convalescent period. Clinical management of EVD combines supportive and symptomatic care while also addressing the patient's emotional and mental health needs. A variety of specific therapies directly targeting the virus has become available, but none of these has, as of yet, conclusively demonstrated an impact. Healthcare workers caring for EVD patients must be constantly aware that they are part of a larger epidemic control operation, and their actions have consequences that go beyond their patients to their families and the community affected by the outbreak.

Transcriptomic signatures differentiate survival from fatal outcomes in humans infected with Ebola virus.

BACKGROUND: In 2014, Western Africa experienced an unanticipated explosion of Ebola virus infections. What distinguishes fatal from non-fatal outcomes remains largely unknown, yet is key to optimising personalised treatment strategies. We used transcriptome data for peripheral blood taken from infected and convalescent recovering patients to identify early stage host factors that are associated with acute illness and those that differentiate patient survival from fatality. RESULTS: The data demonstrate that individuals who succumbed to the disease show stronger upregulation of interferon signalling and acute phase responses compared to survivors during the acute phase of infection. Particularly notable is the strong upregulation of albumin and fibrinogen genes, which suggest significant liver pathology. Cell subtype prediction using messenger RNA expression patterns indicated that NK-cell populations increase in patients who survive infection. By selecting genes whose expression properties discriminated between fatal cases and survivors, we identify a small panel of responding genes that act as strong predictors of patient outcome, independent of viral load. CONCLUSIONS: Transcriptomic analysis of the host response to pathogen infection using blood samples taken during an outbreak situation can provide multiple levels of information on both disease state and mechanisms of pathogenesis. Host biomarkers were identified that provide high predictive value under conditions where other predictors, such as viral load, are poor prognostic indicators. The data suggested that rapid analysis of the host response to infection in an outbreak situation can provide valuable information to guide an understanding of disease outcome and mechanisms of disease.

First Newborn Baby to Receive Experimental Therapies Survives Ebola Virus Disease.

A neonate born to an Ebola virus-positive woman was diagnosed with Ebola virus infection on her first day of life. The patient was treated with monoclonal antibodies (ZMapp), a buffy coat transfusion from an Ebola survivor, and the broad-spectrum antiviral GS-5734. On day 20, a venous blood specimen tested negative for Ebola virus by quantitative reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction. The patient was discharged in good health on day 33 of life. Further follow-up consultations showed age-appropriate weight gain and neurodevelopment at the age of 12 months. This patient is the first neonate documented to have survived congenital infection with Ebola virus.

More Challenges From Ebola: Infection of the Central Nervous System.

Cases of relapsed Ebola virus disease involving symptoms in the central nervous system are reminiscent of our past observations with some nonhuman primates (NHPs) that survived acute Ebola virus infection. We document our findings in detail here and suggest that this phenomenon can be further investigated in NHPs.